Mill inventories are not the only drivers of price. Container board exports were up 4% in 2012 and expected to increase again in 2013. Even anemic growth in China is still growth and export demand will also have an ongoing effect on prices. OCC prices are increasing. This is a volatile market and prices move significantly quarter to quarter but the trend line is continuously upward. The OCC market will also continue to drive Liner board prices higher.
In addition to tighter supply, increasing OCC costs and the lack of virgin fiber inputs will put long term upward pressure on prices. The increased dependence on short fiber raw stocks and better paper making technology may improve the performance of paper at lower strength/basis weights off a corrugator, but understanding the performance characteristics of these components in finished boxes is another matter. Either way, it seems we will be paying more for less for some time to come.
In addition to tighter supply, increasing OCC costs and the lack of virgin fiber inputs will put long term upward pressure on prices. The increased dependence on short fiber raw stocks and better paper making technology may improve the performance of paper at lower strength/basis weights off a corrugator, but understanding the performance characteristics of these components in finished boxes is another matter. Either way, it seems we will be paying more for less for some time to come.
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